Market Update as of 01 May 2026

The Market Update as of May 1, 2026 for Prime, Recycled, and Scrap Plastics. Prime virgin prices are sourced from major Chinese polymer market websites and are quoted in RMB and include VAT, based on an exchange rate of USD 1 = RMB 6.8289.

Crude oil prices closed the week in New York at USD 101.94 per barrel. This represents a significant intraday pullback from the USD 106.88 high recorded just 24 hours earlier on 30 April, reflecting a market caught in a violent tug-of-war between physical supply deficits and speculative volatility.

The sudden movement from the near-USD 107 peak down to the USD 101.94 level is not a signal of fundamental bearishness, but rather a reaction to the extreme “fragility” of the current geopolitical landscape. While the underlying supply disruption remains the largest in history, the market is reacting to high-frequency headlines regarding the Pakistan-mediated negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The drop to USD 101.94 suggests a temporary “profit-taking” phase by traders following the sharp surge seen since late February, as rumors of a potential, more robust extension of the ceasefire began to circulate on 1 May.

However, the “ceiling” remains high. Despite this slight dip, prices are still nearly 75% higher than pre-war levels. The physical reality is that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively paralyzed, and the global market is still grappling with the absence of 10 to 12 million barrels per day.

Market Overview for Prime Resins in China

A significant divergence has emerged in the markets this week. Despite the sharp increase in crude oil and Brent prices, most plastic resins have experienced a downward trend instead of following suit with energy costs. This “decoupling” is driven by a weak global economy and high domestic inventory levels. As the initial “war premium” and geopolitical disturbances from the Middle East begin to fade from spot sentiment, the market has returned to weak fundamentals, where high inventory and slow de-stocking dominate. Petrochemical companies are being forced to reduce their prices to move feedstock, as downstream demand remains stagnant and downstream players show little willingness to build stock. While widespread production maintenance and the suspension of quotations by over 160 enterprises on 28 April have tightened spot liquidity, the lack of consumer demand for plastic-intensive goods continues to act as a heavy anchor on price centers.

Individual Market Insight

ABS

Closing Price (30/4): 10,600 RMB/mt

Market prices have faced downward pressure as the impact of geopolitical news weakens. Despite some manufacturers reducing output, industry production remains high. High inventory levels and extreme difficulty in moving cargo have led to “price trampling,” where aggressive price cuts by manufacturers fail to stimulate buying in a “buy-up, not buy-down” environment.

PS

Closing Price (30/4): 9,300 RMB/mt

The market is characterized by high-level oscillations. While high raw material costs for benzene and styrene provide some support, industry utilization has dropped to 47% due to negative margins. Although low inventory levels provided support earlier in the month, a cooling of trading enthusiasm in late April has caused inventories to begin rebounding.

PE

Closing Price (30/4): 8,900 RMB/mt

Domestic prices fell significantly this week, dropping between 243–344 RMB/mt on average. As the market pivots away from geopolitical headlines, the focus has returned to weak demand. Downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient, and slow de-stocking at the petrochemical level is dragging the market down.

PP

Closing Price (30/4): 9,600 RMB/mt

The market experienced wide-range fluctuations. While high Brent prices provided a brief floor, the spot market remains suppressed. The initial geopolitical premium is being “vomited back” by the market as downstream profit margins are crushed by raw material costs, leading to very sluggish replenishment cycles.

PMMA

Closing Price (30/4): 16,900 RMB/mt

Prices have softened as support from the automotive sector remains limited. The market is quiet, with participants largely in a “wait-and-see” mode, hesitant to commit to volumes amid the broader cooling of the chemical sector.

PC

Closing Price (30/4): 13,600 RMB/mt

After a strong push early in the month, the market is now under pressure. The shift from supply-side support to demand-side weakness has been clear. While some factories attempted to hold prices firm, the lack of downstream follow-up and falling costs for Bisphenol A have forced sellers to offer concessions to move stock.

PA6

Closing Price (30/4): 13,200 RMB/mt

The market followed a “rise then fall” trajectory this month. Initial gains driven by firm Caprolactam costs were erased as Middle East tensions eased, causing pure benzene contracts to fall and market sentiment to turn weak.

PA66

Closing Price (30/4): 22,000 RMB/mt

Despite the high-cost environment, the sheer lack of industrial demand is forcing a correction. Prices have dropped significantly as manufacturers find it nearly impossible to pass on high energy surcharges to a stagnant buyer market.

POM

Closing Price (30/4): 10,800 RMB/mt

Prices have held steady but with a soft bias. Domestic production is sufficient to meet current low-level demand, and terminal users continue to resist any attempts at upward price adjustments.

PET (Bottle Grade)

Closing Price (30/4): 9,700 RMB/mt

This remains one of the few strong outliers, trending in a “V” shape this month. The continued paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz has created a genuine shortage of PX and PTA feedstocks, forcing a cost-driven rally. Demand has remained relatively firm as the market enters its traditional peak season.

PVC

Closing Price (30/4): 5,180 RMB/mt

The price center has stabilized and attempted to move higher. While supply and demand remain fundamentally weak, rising prices in the black series (coal/carbon) and expectations of new industrial policies have provided a speculative floor, though actual transaction volumes remain thin.

Outlook and Conclusion

Looking ahead, the market remains trapped in a “margin squeeze.” While the supply side is under immense pressure from a “dual-engine” of high energy costs and a massive wave of global maintenance—with nearly 20% of global chemical supply disrupted—the demand side is failing to respond. The “war premium” in oil is increasingly viewed by the market as a “tax” on global disposable income, which directly curtails the consumption of plastic goods. Until global logistics normalize and the physical absence of 12 million barrels per day is addressed through a formal treaty, the industry will likely remain in this high-volatility holding pattern, where cost-push inflation meets a wall of consumer resistance.

Market Overview for Recycled Pellets

The recycled plastics market is currently enduring a period of stagnation, with pricing in China holding largely steady compared to the previous week. Although the initial conflict-driven surge in prime resin prices provided a temporary boost to market sentiment, that early momentum has now dissipated. The significant price gap that opened between prime and recycled materials several weeks ago has failed to stimulate sustained demand, as both domestic and export sectors are facing a pronounced slowdown.

Individual Market Insight

Recycled PET (Flakes and Pellets)

Market activity for PET flakes and pellets has stalled as US-based buyers retreat due to heavy uncertainty regarding future tariffs. In Europe and other long-haul destinations, a surge in ocean freight costs has rendered recycled Chinese PET increasingly uncompetitive, as landed costs frequently fail to align with local price expectations.

Recycled PE and PP

In Southeast Asian hubs such as Vietnam, a clear mismatch has emerged between offer prices and buyer affordability. Despite improved pricing for recycled pellets, recyclers of PE film and PP big bags are unable to absorb the high costs of imports, energy, and transportation. This financial strain is evidenced by an increase in distressed transactions; cases have been noted where customers rejected shipments at the port, using discrepancies between loading photos and original offers as a pretext to exit contracts they can no longer afford.

Recycled Styrenics (ABS and PS)

In Malaysia, the outlook for styrenic materials is increasingly grim heading into the second half of the year. While suppliers are attempting to push for price increases to cover their own rising costs, downstream customers are reporting a severe lack of orders for June and beyond. Consequently, buyers are flatly rejecting higher quotes, leading to a standoff in the supply chain.

Operating Costs and Inflationary Pressure

The Asian recycling sector is facing a severe margin squeeze driven by broad-based inflation. Even as prime prices show volatility, the “floor” for recycled pellets is being pushed upward by non-material factors:

Feedstock suppliers are holding firm on prices, attempting to follow earlier gains in the prime market.

Logistics and inland transportation costs have spiked due to higher fuel prices affecting trucking fleets.

Rising energy and labor costs across Southeast Asia are making it impossible for recyclers to offer the deep discounts buyers previously expected.

The scrap and recycling sector is facing a severe logistical crisis, characterized by skyrocketing domestic costs and tightening international regulations that are making many deals unworkable.

Skyrocketing Domestic Logistics Costs

The financial burden of transporting scrap has reached critical levels, especially within the United States. Carriers are currently navigating a landscape where almost every cost center is rising simultaneously, forcing a sustained squeeze on margins.

Trucking costs in the US have surged by more than 60%, while shipping rates have increased by at least 30% to 40%. These spikes often occur immediately after a deal is confirmed. For example, a quote for a 200-mile discount route recently jumped from USD 1,000 to USD 1,700, while a route from the Mexico–Texas border to Los Angeles was quoted at over USD 5,800. These extreme logistics costs are making it nearly impossible to close deals.

Shipping Line Restrictions and Scrutiny

Shipping lines have become increasingly selective regarding waste shipments, adding significant operational friction to the export process.

Waste Shipment Refusals: There is a growing trend of carriers declining shipments of plastic waste to mitigate environmental and financial risks.

Visual Decision-Making: Some lines are now utilizing loading pictures and stricter inbound inspections to decide whether to accept containers or allow their return, focusing on reducing hidden environmental costs associated with failed deliveries or contamination.

Global Surcharges: Beyond base rates, shippers are facing new War Risk and Emergency Bunker surcharges, which further erode the thin margins typical of the scrap industry.

EU Export Ban and Regulatory Shifts

Significant regulatory shifts in Europe are set to drastically reduce the global availability of recyclable materials starting in mid-2026.

Non-OECD Ban:Under the new EU Waste Shipment Regulation, a total ban on plastic waste exports from the EU to non-OECD countries is scheduled to take effect on November 21, 2026.

Interim Restrictions (May 2026):As of May 21, 2026, all plastic waste exports to non-OECD countries are banned. Even exports to OECD countries are restricted and must comply with strict administrative and sustainability requirements.

Strict OECD Oversight:Shipments to OECD countries will remain legal but will face much stricter oversight. The European Commission is actively assessing whether importing OECD nations manage this waste in line with sustainable standards.

Feeding the Circular Economy:These measures are designed to keep plastic waste within Europe to support the EU’s own growing circular economy, resulting in a shrinking pool of available recyclable materials for international export.